INVESTING WITH CLARITY® BLOG
Top 10 Stock Market Predictions for 2016
January 4, 2016 11:52:24 AM
It’s hard to believe that 2016 is here! Of course, just like every other year, the financial services industry is once again abuzz with their predictions on what is going to happen in 2016. It really does amaze me to see some of the predictions that are made each year! Of course, we always get the usual ones: Where will the S&P 500 end the year, where will interest rates be, what are going to be the hot sectors, etc.
The irony of investors being so interested in predictions is that even though investors love to read them and to some degree believe and/or follow them, no one bothers to validate their accuracy. I don’t believe that I have ever heard of any investor or impartial third party grade or rank the authors of these predictions by their accuracy… ever. Additionally, these predictions by their nature really don’t focus on identifying great businesses to invest in over time, which most investors know is one of the keys to successful investing.
I would not be surprised to find that if we went back and checked old predictions, we would find that they were wrong. Am I missing something? Why is it that the public listens to predictions? Behavior scientists and theorists would say that it is due to feeling the person experiences when they think they are getting insider intel. Everyone knows that magic crystal balls don’t exist, but they suspend that disbelief to latch on to a silver bullet or quick fix solution instead of being disciplined with their Investment Strategy.
So, in the spirit of joining the bandwagon, I will once again be making my bold predictions for 2016.
As I mentioned earlier, do investors really pay attention to see how accurate the experts’ predictions are? No, of course not! Therefore, I am going to make it easy for you and let you know how we have fared in our predictions since we started providing them in 2012.
In the four years we have been making predictions, we are 4-4! That’s right, we have been right on every single one! I realize that may be an absolute surprise for some. However, we have had a great track record because of the Investment Philosophy and Strategy we adhere to in helping investors be successful in accomplishing their investment goals.
As you can see, like years past, we don’t really go out on a limb! While many people love hearing predictions and guessing what is going to happen, they don’t help make a successful portfolio. It is the Investment Philosophy & Strategy that assists in the process of investing for success.
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